The attributions of two extreme high temperature events in china were conducted based on single- and two-step attribution methods,
respectively.
The spring of 2014 was the third warmest spring in Northern China since reliable observations were established in the late 1950s. We used a
two-step attribution method to investigate the relative contribution from natural and human caused forcings to this event. The relation between
mean temperature and high temperature evens are first built in the region. Then the detection of mean temperature were conducted based on the
fingerprinting method. The results show that the anthropogenic forcing may have contributed to an 11-fold increased in the chance of the 2014
spring extreme high temperature event in Northern China.
The 2015 summer was very hot in Western China with new records for the daily maximum temperature in many stations in the region. The
regional average of annual maxima of daily maximum (TXx) and daily minimum temperatures (TNx) reached their historical highs. It is interesting
to find that anthropogenic influence can be directly detected in the extreme indices themselves at such a small regional scale. So the human
influence can be estimated directly on the output of the optimal detection results. The preliminary results show that anthropogenic forcing may
increase the occurrence of such events by at least 3-fold for TXx and 42-fold for TNx.
